[SMM Analysis] November Steel Exports Data Interpretation

[SMM Analysis] November Steel Exports Data Interpretation

Ø By Country: Philippines Remains Top Contributor to YoY Increase, Growth Rate Slows Down

According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by SMM, China's cumulative steel exports from January to November 2025 totaled 121.1127 million mt, up 13.32% YoY. By country, the Philippines remained the largest contributor to the cumulative YoY increase, with exports rising by 1.5523 million mt, a growth of 30.09%.

Specifically, among all steel product categories exported to the Philippines in November, coated and plated products surpassed steel billet to take the top spot, accounting for 35% of the total. This differs from October's data, where both categories each accounted for nearly 30% of the total. The main reason for this shift is that the price advantage of Chinese steel billet exports to the Philippines weakened compared to billet export prices from markets like Indonesia and Turkey at the time. Additionally, acceptance of high prices in the local Philippine market was low, and domestic traders were unwilling to offer lower prices, leading to reduced shipment enthusiasm. As for the stable performance of coated and plated products, the Philippines is a major global market for these products but faces significant undersupply due to its own limited capacity, resulting in heavy reliance on imports. China, leveraging low-price strategies and geographical proximity, has become the primary source of coated and plated steel imports for the Philippines. Furthermore, after Thailand imposed anti-dumping measures on galvanizing imports from China this year, the Philippines remains the only ASEAN country without trade restrictions on Chinese coated and plated products, which has greatly stabilized the volume of these exports from China to the Philippines.

Data sources: General Administration of Customs, SMM

Looking back at the top 10 export destinations for China from January to November, Vietnam maintained its leading position with 9.25 million mt, followed by South Korea with 6.99 million mt, and the Philippines ranked third with a cumulative total of 6.71 million mt, making it the only market among the top three to achieve positive YoY growth.

Data sources: General Administration of Customs, SMM

Ø By Product: Hot-Rolled Cumulative YoY Decline Slows, Long Products Mostly Show Growth

According to data compiled by SMM from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 11.4601 million mt of steel products in November 2025, including 2.1007 million mt of hot-rolled exports, up 215,900 mt MoM from October. The main reason was that Vietnam's anti-dumping duties on wide coils from China are expected to take effect soon, prompting traders to actively rush shipments, leading to the overall increase. Consequently, the cumulative YoY decline narrowed to -19.5%. Meanwhile, most long products performed well, with the cumulative YoY growth rates for coiled rebar and rebar reaching 53.7% and 35.9%, respectively, second only to the 140.4% for steel billet.

Looking ahead, the export license issue in December has drawn significant attention, with some buyers rushing to secure goods, and large steel mills still have plans to push for their annual targets at year-end. Combined with SMM order-taking data (details in SMM's Steel Export Weekly Report), it is comprehensively expected that China's total steel exports in December will still achieve growth.

Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM

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